Liar’s Poker: Ireland’s lesson

Since its publication in 1989, Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis has remained a favorite on business reading lists, and more widely across society. While greeted at the time as a wake-up call to the excesses of bond traders, the horrors of instruments such as collateralized depth obligations, and an exposé on the depths of the profound amorality on Wall Street, it was, as we all now patently recognize, ignored.

This is not entirely surprising. Liar’s Poker constitutes just one in a genre, stretching back to Fred Schwed’s 1940′s Where are the Customer’s Yachts and beyond. And this genre exists only because the markets create the conditions of its possibility. By definition it functions to create interest in making money in the markets (as Liar’s Poker did like no other), and its warning cry is nothing other than pious ornamentation.

Nevertheless the book is not without interest for those of us in Ireland still dealing with the realities of bond traders, salesmen, and their ilk.

In the book, an Irish insurance company, “with a taste for speculation in currency options”, is in the parlance of Lewis, ‘blown-up’. The extent of the traders regret, as is typical of the profession in general, extends only to his own stupidity in miscalling the particular trade, not to any loss or consequence suffered by his customer.  And the fact that junior traders, with less than two years experience are allowed to hone their skills at the expense of customers, is neither here nor there. The insurance company does not become the center of pages of guilt and soul searching. It is promptly forgotten.

The psychology of this is important, because of course it suggests that the same psychological disposition would exist if the reverse occurs. If a segment of Irish debt is defaulted on on Monday morning, the market would have gotten over it, not by Friday, but by 11 am on the same morning. It quite simply would be seen an inevitable consequence of ‘stupidity’ (doubtless buttered evenly across many parties), and everyone would move swiftly on.

Our European partners would gripe for longer – that is a certainty – but the markets no. Once the deed is done, they would forgive and forget. It’s in their nature. It’s the only thing they know. Money lenders are profoundly moral.

(If you are interested in author Michael Lewis, his more recent analysis on Ireland’s condition can be found in Vanity fair.)

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